Future Ship Noise Scenarios: Probabilistic Forecasting Using Sound Maps

MacGillivray, A.O., T. Lloyd, H.Ö. Sertlek, and M.A. Ainslie

The Effects of Noise on Aquatic Life IV. Springer Nature Switzerland, Cham. (2026)

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-94229-7_91-1

Underwater radiated noise (URN) from shipping is a pervasive marine pollutant that affects marine wildlife and habitats globally. Although various technological and operational measures have been proposed to reduce ship URN emissions, no mandatory international roadmap for their adoption exists, unlike for greenhouse gases. To address this gap, and to support environmental assessments and policymaking, the Navis Sonus (NAVISON) project, funded and managed by the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA), developed a new probabilistic method for rapidly generating URN foresight scenarios in European seas. This method produces forecasts by combining component sound map layers for different mitigation measures, according to joint probability tables for a given scenario. Separate sound map layers are generated for propeller cavitation noise and machinery (main and auxiliary engine) noise for several ship types. Spatially varying adjustment factors are associated with these layers for each distinct mitigation measure. Combining and adjusting these layers according to their joint probabilities offers managers a practical and efficient method to assess multiple scenarios without recalculating the underlying sound map layers. This approach provides a flexible marine spatial planning tool to enable evaluation of future URN management strategies.